Overall Projected Record: 7.5 - 4.5
I've tried to be as unbiased as I can be and accurately predict the outcome of the season. I've accounted for where the games are played, who each team is coming off of playing and who they have next, and by drawing off 15 years SEC football fan experience. Based on my percentages and my equation the gamecocks will have around 7 (6.6) wins going into the Clemson game which, from here, looks like a toss-up. Both teams littered with question marks as well as talent, since the game is at home and I'm biased, I'm giving the Gamecocks the nod and expect them to finish the year 8-4 (7.6 wins and 4.4 loses) and 4-4 in the SEC. (3.98 SEC wins and 4.02 losses)
Best Case:
USC starts off strong with wins over NC State and Georgia. Garcia steps up, the offense gels, a running game develops and the defense takes care of business. USC goes on and handles UFA and SCST, wins all but one of Kentucky, Vandy, Tennessee, Arkansas, and Clemson and then steals one of the "top ten" games: Mississippi, Alabama and Florida. This leaves them 9-3 with a 2-2 record over top 15 teams. At 6-2 in the SEC they finish second in the East and fourth overall in the SEC.
Worst Case:
USC falters against NC State and doesn't right the ship by the next week against Georgia. Riddled with controversy over the ole ball coach, the quarterback situation, the running game, and a lack of depth in the secondary which handicaps an exhausted defense. USC wins the easy ones UFA and SCST but stumbles through the mid-level games Kentucky Vandy, Tennessee, Arkansas, and Clemson winning only 3, then loses all three of the top levels games: Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida. This leaves them 5-7 (2-6) watching the bowl games on TV and depending on tie-breakers around 5th in the East and 10th overall in the SEC.
Game by Game Run Down:
South Carolina at NC State
W (75%) L (25%)
Beginning the season with a gigantic "?" at quarterback position and no established running back, one of the toughest schedules in the nation (ranked number 3 by CFP), on top of playing in the perennially loaded SEC east leaves little room for error. The first chance for error comes on the road Sept. 3 against NC State. While I've never thought that the first game of the year is a "must win game" this one comes about as close as you can get. At the very least, coupled with the following battle with Georgia, will give a strong indicator of how the rest of the season may look. NC State is projected to land somewhere in the middle to bottom half of the ACC Atlantic Division, however, if Russell Wilson can continue to progress, they may mange to finish near the top of their division and winning this game would be a strong start for that campaign. Of course, lingering thoughts of last years 34-0 shellacking may be the demons they can't overcome.
Prediction:
South Carolina pulls out this one on the road in a closer fashion than a year's matchup, winning 24-17.
South Carolina at 13 Georgia
W (30%) L(70%)
The 2009 Georgia squad isn't quite the 2008 crowd (ranked #2 at the time) lead by Stafford and Moreno who both made early departures to the NFL. Recently, the Gamecocks have played well against Georgia and this may be a year that it's better to play Georgia earlier than later.
Prediction:
In the same vein as last years 14-7 battle Georgia pulls out a close game characterized by defenses that are far ahead of offenses. Interceptions may be more common than completions and touchdowns will be at a premium but I wouldn't be surprised if the Gamecocks pull off an upset here. In the end Georgia inches out Carolina 13-9.
South Carolina vs. Florida Atlantic
W (100%) L (0%)
There is no "sure win" in college football (unless we're talking about the Gators) but this is about as close as the Gamecocks will have to a lock.
Prediction:
The Gamecocks will win, but by how much? This is a tough question to answer as we could see a 2-0 team oozing with confidence or a 0-2 team coming of a tough two game road stretch without a quarterback. Since I'm forecasting a 1-1 team I'll split the difference with the Gamecocks winning 34-17 in a game that is never really in doubt.
South Carolina vs. 8 Mississippi
W(33%) L(67%)
It's beginning to become clear why our schedule is ranked #3 in the nation. Why can't we ever play Auburn on years like this? Mississippi is up this year and many people have them as the dark horse to when the West and to at least challenge the Gators for the overall title. Behind Sneed, they pose quite a challenge and make this game a tough one for the gamecocks to steal.
Prediction:
The gamecocks won in Oxford last year and both teams look fairly similar to those squads so I wouldn't be surprised to see an upset here and this could very easily be a slip up game for the Rebels. I think that the Rebels offense vs the Gamecocks defense will be a matchup that makes this game well worth watching, unfortunately I don't think the defense won't get the help it needs for the offense and will be worn down by the 4th quarter. Ole Miss 27-14 in a game that is closer than the score indicates.
South Carolina vs. SC State
W(100%) L(0%)
I like this game. Not only because of the breather it provides, rather because if you going to play games like this (which in the SEC you need) it's nice to keep them in-state. Many of these guys played high-school ball together, it lends itself to good story line, and it is good for the smaller state schools.
Prediction:
It's never really close again after the kickoff and the win this won running away 38-13. The gamecocks defense proves too fast and deep for SC State and the offense finally looks like it knows what it's doing.
South Carolina vs Kentucky
W(80%) L(20%)
Staying at home, the Gamecocks take on the Wildcats who have been making great strides recently and have become a challenge. This game will be tough and may resemble last years 24-17 gamecock win.
Prediction:
The Gamecocks defense is too much for the Cats and they pull out this win in ugly fashion 23-17.
South Carolina at 5 Alabama
W(20%) L(80%)
Back on the road, the Gamecocks roll in for what looks to be another tough match up. Seriously, why don't we get Auburn or Miss St. this year? Alabama didn't lose much from last year, but they did lose a quarterback who had started there since the mid-ninty's. Still expect Sabon to have this team under control even in the absence of JP Wilson's leadership.
Prediction:
You never get excited when you see a game at Tuscaloosa on your schedule, even less so when you see the ranking that the Tide has. Still, I won't write this game off yet (though my 20% may look silly by game time) but it doesn't look like a win for Carolina. Both defenses will look like top 15 defense but the same won't be said for the offenses. Alabama's will look like it but the Gamecocks offense will again leave something to be desired. This will be the deference in the game and the cause of a 27-13 Tide win.
South Carolina vs Vanderbilt
W(80%) L(20%)
Vanderbilt was the cause of the Gamecocks demise two years ago (or perhaps the Wofford win) and they beat USC again last year. Vanderbilt, like Kentucky, has climbed from the basement of and is no longer the East's running joke. This game is in Nashville and you never know what state the Gamecocks will be in after Bama.
Prediction:
History won't repeat itself here, with the Gamecocks taking this game. It will be hard fought but Carolina will come out on top 24-17 in another close match.
South Carolina at Tennessee
W(75%) L(25%)
Will Layne Kiffin turn the Vols around, maybe, will he do it this year, doubtful. The Vols carry the same bark but not the same bite they used too.
Prediction:
Vols will most likely be desperate for a win here but most likely not in the shape to pull it off. The Gamecocks take this one 20-17 in a nail-biter.
South Carolina at Arkansas
W(75%) L(24%)
These games get harder and harder to pick as you get deeper into the SEC season. Arkansas and the Gamecocks are both expected to finish in the middle of their respective divisions. There is little room for a push to the top of either division for these teams but a 2nd or 3rd place finish is possible with a few key wins, but so is a 5th or 6th place finish with a few bad loses.
Prediction:
It's hard to know what these teams will look like by week 9 of the season and playing on the road is never easy. Still I like the Gamecocks here to win 28-24 in a game where the offense looks good late and bails out the defense for once.
South Carolina vs 1 Florida
W(5%) L(95%)
So, not every pick gets harder. It seems to not really matter when or where this game is played. It's in Columbia, which normally helps but I don't really think the ZIP code the game is played in will really give one team the edge they need.
Prediction:
As a fan it kills me to write this but it's not going to be close, or pretty. Still (the eternal optimist in me) it's college football and it's hard to navigate the SEC season undefeated, could the Gamecocks be the slip-up that Florida always seems to make. Why not, besides of course, our quarterbacks vs. their quarterbacks or maybe our running game? Still anything can happen. Mostly like though, a 38-21 loss.
South Carolina vs. Clemson
W(50%) L(50%)
This game feels like a toss up to me, both teams have some promise and some question marks. Much like the Gamecocks uncertainty behind the center, Clemson's Parker has been named Harpers replacement but Korn could always make a push. It's hard to pick a favorite in a game between two team with this many questions this far in advance, perhaps the picture will defog as the season progresses. This game will also have large bowl implications for the two teams. Either getting them bowl eligible or adding an important non-conference win to there bowl resume.
Prediction:
This feels like anybody's game for now, but because of the fan in me and since the game is in Columbia, USC wins by a fieldgoal 27-24.
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