SEC East Preview

Projected Outcome:

Florida (11-1, 7-1)

UGA ( 8-4, 5-3)

USC (8-4, 4-4)

UK (7-5, 3-5)

Vandy (6-6, 3-5)

Tenn. (6-6, 2-6)

Team By Team:

How can Florida not repeat? They are returning all 11 starters from the national championship game AND all 11 back-ups from defense that held the Big 12's high octane Oklahoma to 14 points. Their quarterback may be the greatest college football player. If this wasn't enough, they have, by SEC standards, a schedule set up for them to win. FSU is the only non-conference game that their third string couldn't win handily, also they miss Bama and Ole Miss. Look for number 3 in 4 years.

Georgia doesn't come with the same preseason hype that had last year but they are still Georgia. With 8 returning starters, their O line should be vastly improved and should no longer be their Achilles' heel. The linebacker core should be the strength of the defense and A.J. Green will be the start of the offense. Still the question of how King and Cox will do in replacing Stafford and Moreno at RB and QB looms large.

South Carolina has plenty of talent as well as plenty of question. One thing that won't be a question is their defensive front 7. Lead by Norwood, expect their 4-2-5 defense to stingily give up rushing yards. The secondary will undoubtedly be hurt by Munnerlyn and Cooks early exit to the NFL but expect the young talented core to develop as the season progresses. The past few years the offense has been the bane of ever USC fan, expect this year to be little different. Still there is reason for hope, Garcia is showing promise, and look for players like Byrnes and Brown to step up on the receiving end. If the O line can give Garcia time and open up the running game, look for the defense to help carry the offense to a 8 win season.

Look for Kentucky's offense to feature Randall under center occasionally as they run a wildcat offense, which, coupled with Senior A. Smith (4.3 for a 40 time) a tailback to breath life into their animate rushing game. A major concerns are the defense who (due to Jarmon testing positive for banned substances) are only returning 4 starters. Also we will have to see if QB Hartline can overcome his inconsistency and lead this team to an unimaginable 4th start bowl game.

Vanderbilt's lines should be the strength of their club since they aren't losing a single starter from either side of scrimmage. They return 9 starters from a solid group that allowed less than 20 points a game last year. The easiest way they could not return to a bowl this year will be inconsistent quarterback play and lack of playmakers on offense. Much like the USC if they can jump start their offense look for a successful season.

Tennessee had a great recruiting class that has only added to the hype Layne Kiffin has generated around the program, unfortunately they are still a year or two away. They have a strong defense lead by Eric Berry, perhaps the best player in college football,  that should keep them in games in spite of a lack of depth and experience at linebacker. Still, like so many other SEC teams this year quarterback play will determine the outcome of the season and with Crompton and Stephens it doesn't look promising. Look for a promising season that, coupled with a few solid recruiting classes, could have Tennessee back on it's way to national relevance.

BCS Bowls

Rose Bowl

Penn St. vs. Southern Cal

(Southern Cal by 7)

Orange Bowl

VT vs. West Virgina

(VT by 3)

Sugar Bowl

Alabama vs. Boise St.

(Alabama by 14)

Fiesta Bowl

Oklahoma vs Ohio St.

(Oklahoma by 7)

BCS National Championship Game

Florida vs.Texas

(Florida by 10)

Florida will beat Texas in the National 

2009 ACC Predictions

2009 ACC Predictions:

Coastal Division: Atlantic Division

VT 9-3, 6-2 FSU 7-5, 5-3

GT 9-3, 6-2 CU 8-4, 5-3

UNC 9-3, 5-3 WF 8-4, 4-4

Miami 7-5, 3-5 BC 7-5, 4-4

UVA 4-8, 2-6 NCST 7-5, 4-4

Duke 3-9, 1-7 Maryland 6-6, 4-4

The 2008 ACC season was an extraordinary display of parity, or an ordinary display of mediocrity; there was  only one game separating the top and the bottom of the Atlantic division and every team had at least 3 conference losses. While they sent a record 10 teams bowling, they had a disappointing sub .500% record. One bright spot in the 2009 bowl season was VT ending the 1-9 BCS drought with a win over Cincinnati. Still it seems that in recent years the ACC has been blinded by the national spot light with (VT vs. LSU 2007; Bama vs. Clemson 2008; 2-9 BCS era) and has not had a legitimate national championship contender since FSU in 2000.

Could Virginia Tech be that contender this year? Ranked number 7th national in both preseason polls it's hard to say otherwise and they have a schedule thats lined up for them. While they play 4 top 25 teams (5 Alabama, 24 Nebraska, 15 Georgia Tech, and 21 North Carolina) all but the GT game is in Blacksburg. Also, they are in September or October so the have November and a ACC title game to climb back up the polls if they drop one these early games. There rushing game should be solid with Evans returning from his 1265 yds. 11 td freshman campaign and the "Vickish" Taylor behind center.

Verdict:

VT is the class of the ACC (winning in 2004, 2007, 2008 and 2nd in 2005) I expect them to be there again this year. In the national picture they are the only ACC team that can lose and still be considered for the BCS national championship. End the end their schedule is too much and they are still a bit too young, they'll play for the ACC championship again but with at least 2 losses the ACC will have to wait another year. (9-3, 6-2)

Georgia Tech is returning Dwyer (1397 yds, 7 per carry, 12 tds) and a high powered running game. The offense should resemble 2008 but their defense will have a few holes and a some youth and could prove to be their Achilles' heal. They lost 5 starters, 3 from the DL, and will have a hard time rebuilding, which will be a true test of Paul Johnson.

Verdict:

Thankfully, play 21 UNC, 7 VT, and 13 UGA all at home but they still have to go to Tallahassee for 18 FSU and to Nashville to play a solid Vanderbilt team. They will finish 2nd behind VT in the costal because of a head to head loss and match last years record. (9-3, 6-2)

North Carolina is a team clearly moving in the right direction, still, I can't quite buy into all the hype just yet. However, their non-confrence schedule is a joke and besides having to play divisional foes VT and GT on the road the conference schedule isn't too bad either.

Verdict:

Look for UNC to up last years (8-4, 4-4) numbers with a (9-3, 5-3) season. They will drop the GT and VT games and then slip up somewhere else in the ACC (FSU or at BC?).

Miami has fallen so far since the early 2000's, in fact, the last time they did something meaningful was when the beat FSU in the 2004 Orange Bowl (their last game before joining the ACC). I doubt this year signal a return to glory. They start with a schedule that should make Hurricane fans cry (at 18 FSU, 15 GT, at 7 VT, 3 OU).

Verdict:

Miami may be 0-4 on October 4th, actually they will be. This will be to much for them to overcome and they'll finish 4th in the costal at (7-5, 3-5).

Virginia does show many reasons for hope this year. In 2008 when the league was ruled by mediocrity they finished 3-5, and while VT, GT, and UNC have been making strides to improve UVA seems stuck in neutral. Expect the only real highlight to be the secondary play but this to be offset by a lack of ability to stop the run.

Verdict:

UVA will again miss the bowl season, kudos for scheduling 17 TCU but I'm afraid it'll just be another notch in the loss column. Still thanks to Duke even with a record of (4-8, 2-6) they won't be at the bottom.

If a conference is going to have national contenders, and not beat itself up, it's gonna have to have Duke, cough, I mean a team at the bottom. Hmmm, it's gonna be hard to be positive here. Last year their best football player was on the basketball court instead of the field and wasn't even starting the second half of his senior year.

Verdict:

Look for them to start strong against the Richmond Spiders (no they're not a high school, I checked) and maybe even keep rolling against Army. Then probably finish 1-9 for a (3-9, 0-8) record.

Atlantic Division:

FSU looks like the favorite for this division as Bowden seems to have them moving in the right direction. With FSU speed on both sides of the ball, and if Ponder continues to develop they should have a decent season. There non conference games are tough, with 20 BYU and the perennial game with UF (ranked number 1 in case you have been in a coma for the last year or so) keeping them from an 8 or 9 win season.

Verdict:

They should finish first among the bottle neck around the top of the division. Look for a (7-5, 5-3) year that doesn't live up to expectations.

The division gets tough here, I don't really see any stand outs or push overs. I doubt any of these teams finish below 4-4 in conference or that any will finish about 5-3.

Clemson's ACC championship window may be closing. In a weak ACC the tigers have continually shown their inability to get over the hump, to even play for a championship. Always at the door but never able to walk through (ei. Kelly's drop, Ryan's pass). With the league strengthening, have they lost their chance? Still there are reasons for hope, Dabo has playmakers such as Ford and Spiller who have incredible big play potential. Also, Korn and Parker have potential to make plays at quarterback, something the tigers haven't really had since Woody. Still there is reason for doubt, Korn and Parker are untested, how will the tigers work without Harper and Davis, how will Dabo do in his first full year?

Verdict:

Clemson's ACC schedule is set for them to succeed, they miss UNC and VT, and get to play FSU at home. Their schedule isn't a breeze though, inviting TCU to Death Valley and going on the road for GT and USC. Look for another "almost" season for the tigers, finishing with 7 or 8 wins and a 5-3 conference record.

Wake Forest isn't a perennial power, but they do have Skinner and perhaps the easiest schedule in the ACC. They aren't really challenging themselves outside of the conference with Baylor, Stanford, Elon, and Navy, and like Clemson they miss VT and UNC.

Verdict:

Look for the Deacons to start strong, they could easily roll into Atlanta on November 11th with only 1 or 2 losses for a highly ranked show down. Of course, they could also be below 500% in the ACC by then, mediocr... I mean, parody. If they come into Atlanta highly ranked I'm afraid the bubble will burst there and they won't live up to their ranking. (8-4, 4-4)

Boston College has been solid in the ACC since joining, certainly a lot of the credit goes to Matt Ryan and sound quarterback play. This year after Shinskies broken rib, they find themselves lacking in this department.

Verdict:

BC should do ok this year in a close division, probably finishing around (7-5, 4-4) maybe with an upset win over Notre Dame.

It's hard to know what to do with Maryland. They'll start off with a loss to 12 Cal and then their schedule settles down until mid November. How they play in this stretch will determine their season, I don't expect great things but with James Madison, Middle Tennessee St, Virginia, Duke, and NCST they don't really need great things.

Verdict:

The Turtles will do ok, win a couple of the Clemson, Wake, FSU, and BC games, and if they take care of the games they should win, we'll probably see them bowling again. (7-5, 4-4)

North Carolina State, like Maryland, I'm not that sure about these guys. After their Thursday night showdown with USC the picture may get clearer. Unlike the other Atlantic teams they play both VT and UNC, and the non conference schedule isn't a breeze either with Pitt and USC.

Verdict:

The schedule is to much for them, they win the easy ones but come up one or two plays too short too many times to make any real waves. (6-6, 4-4)

South Carolina Football Predictions 2009

Overall Projected Record: 7.5 - 4.5

I've tried to be as unbiased as I can be and accurately predict the outcome of the season. I've accounted for where the games are played, who each team is coming off of playing and who they have next, and by drawing off 15 years SEC football fan experience. Based on my percentages and my equation the gamecocks will have around 7 (6.6) wins going into the Clemson game which, from here, looks like a toss-up. Both teams littered with question marks as well as talent, since the game is at home and I'm biased, I'm giving the Gamecocks the nod and expect them to finish the year 8-4 (7.6 wins and 4.4 loses) and 4-4 in the SEC. (3.98 SEC wins and 4.02 losses)

Best Case:

USC starts off strong with wins over NC State and Georgia. Garcia steps up, the offense gels, a running game develops and the defense takes care of business. USC goes on and handles UFA and SCST, wins all but one of Kentucky, Vandy, Tennessee, Arkansas, and Clemson and then steals one of the "top ten" games: Mississippi, Alabama and Florida. This leaves them 9-3 with a 2-2 record over top 15 teams. At 6-2 in the SEC they finish second in the East and fourth overall in the SEC.

Worst Case:

USC falters against NC State and doesn't right the ship by the next week against Georgia. Riddled with controversy over the ole ball coach, the quarterback situation, the running game, and a lack of depth in the secondary which handicaps an exhausted defense. USC wins the easy ones UFA and SCST but stumbles through the mid-level games Kentucky Vandy, Tennessee, Arkansas, and Clemson winning only 3, then loses all three of the top levels games: Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida. This leaves them 5-7 (2-6) watching the bowl games on TV and depending on tie-breakers around 5th in the East and 10th overall in the SEC. 

Game by Game Run Down:

South Carolina at NC State

W (75%) L (25%)

Beginning the season with a gigantic "?" at quarterback position and no established running back, one of the toughest schedules in the nation (ranked number 3 by CFP), on top of playing in the perennially loaded SEC east leaves little room for error. The first chance for error comes on the road Sept. 3 against NC State. While I've never thought that the first game of the year is a "must win game" this one comes about as close as you can get. At the very least, coupled with the following battle with Georgia, will give a strong indicator of how the rest of the season may look. NC State is projected to land somewhere in the middle to bottom half of the ACC Atlantic Division, however, if Russell Wilson can continue to progress, they may mange to finish near the top of their division and winning this game would be a strong start for that campaign. Of course, lingering thoughts of last years 34-0 shellacking may be the demons they can't overcome.

Prediction:

South Carolina pulls out this one on the road in a closer fashion than a year's matchup, winning 24-17.

South Carolina at 13 Georgia

W (30%) L(70%)

The 2009 Georgia squad isn't quite the 2008 crowd (ranked #2 at the time) lead by Stafford and Moreno who both made early departures to the NFL. Recently, the Gamecocks have played well against Georgia and this may be a year that it's better to play Georgia earlier than later.

Prediction:

In the same vein as last years 14-7 battle Georgia pulls out a close game characterized by defenses that are far ahead of offenses. Interceptions may be more common than completions and touchdowns will be at a premium but I wouldn't be surprised if the Gamecocks pull off an upset here. In the end Georgia inches out Carolina 13-9.

South Carolina vs. Florida Atlantic

W (100%) L (0%)

There is no "sure win" in college football (unless we're talking about the Gators) but this is about as close as the Gamecocks will have to a lock.

Prediction:

The Gamecocks will win, but by how much? This is a tough question to answer as we could see a 2-0 team oozing with confidence or a 0-2 team coming of a tough two game road stretch without a quarterback. Since I'm forecasting a 1-1 team I'll split the difference with the Gamecocks winning 34-17 in a game that is never really in doubt.

South Carolina vs. 8 Mississippi

W(33%) L(67%)

It's beginning to become clear why our schedule is ranked #3 in the nation. Why can't we ever play Auburn on years like this? Mississippi is up this year and many people have them as the dark horse to when the West and to at least challenge the Gators for the overall title. Behind Sneed, they pose quite a challenge and make this game a tough one for the gamecocks to steal.

Prediction:

The gamecocks won in Oxford last year and both teams look fairly similar to those squads so I wouldn't be surprised to see an upset here and this could very easily be a slip up game for the Rebels. I think that the Rebels offense vs the Gamecocks defense will be a matchup that makes this game well worth watching, unfortunately I don't think the defense won't get the help it needs for the offense and will be worn down by the 4th quarter. Ole Miss 27-14 in a game that is closer than the score indicates.

South Carolina vs. SC State

W(100%) L(0%)

I like this game. Not only because of the breather it provides, rather because if you going to play games like this (which in the SEC you need) it's nice to keep them in-state. Many of these guys played high-school ball together, it lends itself to good story line, and it is good for the smaller state schools.

Prediction:

It's never really close again after the kickoff and the win this won running away 38-13. The gamecocks defense proves too fast and deep for SC State and the offense finally looks like it knows what it's doing.

South Carolina vs Kentucky

W(80%) L(20%)

Staying at home, the Gamecocks take on the Wildcats who have been making great strides recently and have become a challenge. This game will be tough and may resemble last years 24-17 gamecock win.

Prediction:

The Gamecocks defense is too much for the Cats and they pull out this win in ugly fashion 23-17.

South Carolina at 5 Alabama

W(20%) L(80%)

Back on the road, the Gamecocks roll in for what looks to be another tough match up. Seriously, why don't we get Auburn or Miss St. this year? Alabama didn't lose much from last year, but they did lose a quarterback who had started there since the mid-ninty's. Still expect Sabon to have this team under control even in the absence of JP Wilson's leadership.

Prediction:

You never get excited when you see a game at Tuscaloosa on your schedule, even less so when you see the ranking that the Tide has. Still, I won't write this game off yet (though my 20% may look silly by game time) but it doesn't look like a win for Carolina. Both defenses will look like top 15 defense but the same won't be said for the offenses. Alabama's will look like it but the Gamecocks offense will again leave something to be desired. This will be the deference in the game and the cause of a 27-13 Tide win.

South Carolina vs Vanderbilt

W(80%) L(20%)

Vanderbilt was the cause of the Gamecocks demise two years ago (or perhaps the Wofford win) and they beat USC again last year. Vanderbilt, like Kentucky, has climbed from the basement of and is no longer the East's running joke. This game is in Nashville and you never know what state the Gamecocks will be in after Bama.

Prediction:

History won't repeat itself here, with the Gamecocks taking this game. It will be hard fought but Carolina will come out on top 24-17 in another close match.

South Carolina at Tennessee

W(75%) L(25%)

Will Layne Kiffin turn the Vols around, maybe, will he do it this year, doubtful. The Vols carry the same bark but not the same bite they used too.

Prediction:

Vols will most likely be desperate for a win here but most likely not in the shape to pull it off. The Gamecocks take this one 20-17 in a nail-biter.

South Carolina at Arkansas

W(75%) L(24%)

These games get harder and harder to pick as you get deeper into the SEC season. Arkansas and the Gamecocks are both expected to finish in the middle of their respective divisions. There is little room for a push to the top of either division for these teams but a 2nd or 3rd place finish is possible with a few key wins, but so is a 5th or 6th place finish with a few bad loses.

Prediction:

It's hard to know what these teams will look like by week 9 of the season and playing on the road is never easy. Still I like the Gamecocks here to win 28-24 in a game where the offense looks good late and bails out the defense for once.

South Carolina vs 1 Florida

W(5%) L(95%)

So, not every pick gets harder. It seems to not really matter when or where this game is played. It's in Columbia, which normally helps but I don't really think the ZIP code the game is played in will really give one team the edge they need.

Prediction:

As a fan it kills me to write this but it's not going to be close, or pretty. Still (the eternal optimist in me) it's college football and it's hard to navigate the SEC season undefeated, could the Gamecocks be the slip-up that Florida always seems to make. Why not, besides of course, our quarterbacks vs. their quarterbacks or maybe our running game? Still anything can happen. Mostly like though, a 38-21 loss.

South Carolina vs. Clemson

W(50%) L(50%)

This game feels like a toss up to me, both teams have some promise and some question marks. Much like the Gamecocks uncertainty behind the center, Clemson's Parker has been named Harpers replacement but Korn could always make a push. It's hard to pick a favorite in a game between two team with this many questions this far in advance, perhaps the picture will defog as the season progresses. This game will also have large bowl implications for the two teams. Either getting them bowl eligible or adding an important non-conference win to there bowl resume. 

Prediction:

This feels like anybody's game for now, but because of the fan in me and since the game is in Columbia, USC wins by a fieldgoal 27-24.

Odds to Play for the 2009-2010 National Championship

The Short List: (127%; 7.85/10) 

Florida 8/5

Texas 4/1

Oklahoma 5/1

Penn St. 5/1

Reasonable Shot: (55%; 9/5)

Southern Cal 8/1

Alabama 8/1

Ohio St. 12/1

Mississippi 18/1

Virginia Tech 18/1

LSU 18/1

Oklahoma St 20/1

Long Shot: (16.7%; 6/1)

California 35/1

Georgia 35/1

Georgia Tech 40/1

BYU 40/1

TCU 50/1

Boise St. 50/1

Notre Dame 50/1

Rest of the Field: (1.3%; 75/1)

Florida: 

They're just about everybody's pick (58 out 60)first place votes in the AP. The reasons they should play for the Championship are almost as long as the odds that Notre Dame will it. With Tebow and pretty much the same team as last year, a favorable SEC schedule, look for the Gators in January. Is the hype too much and will they resemble ESPN's "Greatest College Team Ever" 2004 Southern California who lost to Vince Young?

Texas:

With Colt returning for his senior season, and most of his offensive weapons sticking around, the Longhorns look like a favorite. Will they end up on the wrong side of a 3 way tie again?

Oklahoma:

Along with Texas they look like the class of the Big 12, but with a tough schedule and Bradford losing some offensive weapons, can they get back to the title game?

Penn State:

I don't think they're near Southern Cal, the top of SEC or the top of the Big 12 but with only 2 games against ranked teams (22 Iowa and 6 Ohio St) both of which are at home, an undefeated season isn't out of the question. They have no room for error, so can they run the table?

Southern California:

They play a tough schedule, (6 Ohio St, 12 Cal, 23 Notre Dame, 16 Oregon) all on the road. With another QB moving on to the NFL they have chosen to start true freshman Matt Barkley. With this many tough road games and a true freshman QB, can they run the table and if they drop one will they make it over a 1 loss Big 12 or SEC school?

Alabama:

Look for Sabon to have Bama fired up after a disappointing finish to last seasons reemergence to the national scene. Ranked 5th nationally they start off the season with a showdown with 7th ranked VT. How will they do without Wilson?

Ohio St:

They play Southern Cal early in a must win game. After some disappointing BCS performances they need to win some big non conference games to win some credibility back for the Big 10. With to late top 25 games (Penn St. and Iowa) and no conference championship game, they can't afford to drop one. Can they bring respect back to the Big 10 this year?

Mississippi:

With Snead and a favorable SEC schedule, the Rebels are a dark horse to win the SEC this year. Actually they are everyones dark horse to win an ranked 8, so are they really still a dark horse?

LSU:

They may start Jefferson, who would be the youngest starting QB in the SEC and while they have the talent, they may not have quite the experience to win the SEC. Can they overcome their youth and contend for the SEC and then national title?

Virginia Tech:

The Hokies are a solid team and along with GT look to be the class of the ACC, unfortunately that doesn't carry the same clout as being the class of the Big 12 or SEC. I expect youth and tough start to prove to much for them as they drop at least 2 games. Is the ACC able to send a legitimate contender this year?

Oklahoma St:

Surprisingly easy schedule considering where they play, Georgia and Texas at home, and then the season finale against Oklahoma. They may steal one of the games against OU and UT but not both. Could they play a roll in the championship picture by creating an awkward 3-tie in the Big 12 South?

Georgia:

Not quite as long of a shot as you may think, the major road block is that they have to go through UF. If they win that game, they can afford to drop one of the Ok. St, LSU, and GT games, and then beat the SEC West Champion. Can they get through UF?

California:

They get Southern Cal at home and if they win that game anything is possible. Do they have the depth or consistency to run the table?

Georgia Tech:

Like VT, they would pretty much have to go undefeated to get the nod. However, if they lose early, win key conference games, and if Georgia stays highly ranked until the Yellow Jackets come to Athens, it possible. Will their defense be able to fill the holes on the DL?

BYU:

They play a tough schedule (3 OU, 18 FSU, 17, TCU, and 19 Utah). Look for them to drop at least one of those games. If they win out do you have to take them over a 1 loss UF or UT?

TCU:

With their only ranked opponents being 20 BYU and 19 Utah, it looks like their strength of schedule isn't enough to get them in. If UVA or Clemson managed to make a run at the ACC title could it be enough to them?

Boise St:

In the same situation as TCU and BYU, they need to finish 12-0 to have a shot, and that is really just a shot at a BCS game. Does anyone think that last years Utah was really better than UF, do these non BCS school have a case?

Notre Dame:

Thanks to Beano Cook and Lou Holtz the Irish have been thrown into national championship talk. They play maybe the easiest schedule they have ever played with Southern Cal being the only ranked team. I expect them to lose 3 but how would the voters react to a 1 loss Irish team?