Superman Wears Eric Norwood Underwear!

Garcia put up another solid performance going 16-34 for 220 yards, perhaps more important was his 1 TD pass against 0 INT's. Spencer Lanning went 3-3 on field goals and made a TD saving tackle on a punt return. Cliff Matthews stepped up with 5 solo tackles, 3 tackles for a loss, 1 forced fumble (that set up USC's lone TD) and two sacks. 

BUT....

Anyone who watched the game will tell you there is one reason USC won and it's name is Eric Norwood. Forget Eric Berry, Norwood is the most valuable defensive play in the SEC. I'll ignore that he's had 28 career sacks (1st in USC history, 8th in SEC history) or that he has 49.5 tackles for a loss (11th in SEC history) or that he's the leader and the heart and soul of this young defense. I'm just going to talk about his stat line from tonight. 7 solo tackles, 3 assists, 2.5 tackles for a loss, 1 blocked kick and 2 sacks; gaudy numbers for most but little more than another day at the office for this man. Moreover he seemed to be involved in every play, pressuring Snead or stuffing the run. Heck he even tipped a punt, talk about a guy who plays with a motor every single snap. This defense lead by Norwood and Matthews fought through injuries, youth and a heisman candidate to hold Snead and McCluster to 10 points in route to recording the biggest win ever in Williams Brice.

So why am I not euphoric over beating the #4 team in the nation?

1. Red-zone troubles continue to be a bane in the side of this team. Today was no different. 5 trips inside the 20 yielded only 16 points (1 TD, 3 FG's, 1 TO), that's only 3.2 points per trip. Self inflicted penalties and dropped passes were the main reasons for this dismal number today and this is the only reason Ole Miss even had a chance to win with 2 minutes left on the clock.

2. The rushing game took a step backwards today and went for a mere 65 yards on 34 carries (1.9 per carry). Giles and Garcia combined for -5 yards and the lone "stand out" was Miles who went for 52 yards on 13 carries (4 per carry and sadly 80% of our entire rushing attack).

3. There's nothing special about our special teams. I'm excluding Spencer Lanning from this as he was perfect (3 of 3 and 9 straight) on FG's as well as making a TD saving tackle; however, if he didn't make that play we give up a TD and very likely lose the game. So while the 24.3 yards per kick return is an improvement we still need to shore up our kick coverage. Now I want to be careful that I don't get to down on or special teams because they did tip a punt and stop a fake field goal but I do think that if we don't clean things up it will bite us down the road.

4. If Ole Miss is a top 5 team, they sure didn't look like it last night. Now give our D-line a lot of the credit for that but it's still not quite like beating Bama or UF, and we'll know a lot more about how big this win really is a month from now. I just don't want to have another repeat of the win over #8 UK in 07 and I see too many parallels to be comfortable.

Now it's not my intentions to rain on our parade tonight, I mean we just beat a top #5 team for only the second time in our history, right now it's time celebrate! I just don't want to make more of this win than I should. I don't want to talk like we've made it when in reality we just took another (albeit large) step towards national importance. What this win does do is make 8 wins very achievable and 9 wins a realistic goal, it shows that our "D" can keep anyone in check and if we put together a complete game there's nobody we can't play with.

Notes:

I've heard a lot of talk about penalties in this game, and that USC got a lot of calls. Now, since I was limited to gametracker and a bit of espn radio it's hard for me to make a fully informed comment; however I think it may be useful to point out that USC had 8 penalties for 65 yards and Ole Miss had 9 of 70. Seems fairly balanced to me.

A CH CH

Scary Small Print: I'm not sold on the ACC and I don't renege any of my previous ACC comments; however, I do have to give praise where praise has been earned.

So.....what do I know about the ACC after three weeks?

1) Duke, UVA and Maryland are awful, in fact, I can smell their stench from here.

2) GT and UNC are overrated. They aren't bad teams, but they certainly shouldn't be around a #15 ranking. They belong with Clemson in the 20-30 range.

3) VT may still be the team to beat, I'll let you know for sure next saturday. Also, their win over Nebraska really isn't anything to hang your hat on. I know they beat a ranked Nebraska team, but before we get carried away let's remember it's not the 80's.

4) Two teams that may have missed the 80's memo are U and FSU. #9 Miami is returning to familiar territory and FSU looked vintage as they out classed a solid BYU team 54-28. I'll go ahead turn on upset alert sign for Miami though as their match up with VT has all the makings of a let down (hyped, young over-achievers vs. solid under-achievers) but if they can get through their first four 3-1 it's hard not to be impressed.

5) Wake, NCST, and BC aren't worth the ink (or bits of memory) it takes to write about them. They aren't bad or good enough to turn any heads.

Finally after the first two weeks the ACC finally put up something they can be proud of (at least when considering the standards their play has set in recent years).

Three Games In

Now that we have a 3 game sample size I'll attempt to provide a sort of review for USC's start, not predictions or how I think they'll finish, but rather a snapshot of the team after 3 weeks. First, South Carolina's offense is no longing inanimate and after a paltry 7 points in the opener against NCST they've put up 75 points in the last two games. A large share of praise goes to Garcia who seems to finally be maturing after the first two years of his tumultuous relationship with the University of South Carolina. Now I don't want drink the coolaid (yet) and say that he's one of the best quarterbacks USC has had in a long time (however, when that list includes the likes of Tannyhill I'm willing to be convinced) but I do think that he's had the potential and is now progressing towards being the guy Spurrier expected he would be when he signed him, Next you can't avoid looking at the rushing game where USC has been making great strides (no pun intended). While Maddox doesn't have any real big play potential, he has become a solid, reliable back and his powerful is well complimented by Giles speed and agility. While the offense isn't there yet, it's hard to say that they aren't moving in the right direction.

The defense has been a little harder to evaluate and I'm admittedly having trouble harmonizing their first three performances. First I'm going to talk about what I know. Eric Norwood is a monster and has been a constant highlight reel since his coming out party against UK a few years ago; however, he doesn't make just the big plays this guy makes EVERY play. Also, losing Ajiaboye, Gathers and Peppers seriously hurts our depth and run stopping ability and our youth in the secondary can be exposed. Now let's venture bravely into the unknown as I explain the unexplainable, how the same defense could play the NCST and the UGA game and just how good are they? First they clamped down on NCST allowing 3 (a team who has averaged 55 points in their other games) and were widely praised, from Spurrier and ESPN to everyone who watched the game. Then, for an encore they give up 41 points to a Georgia team that scored 10 against a Big 12 defense (I'm ignoring the FAU game because it doesn't really show anything). I guess the first question to be addressed is just how good UGA's offense is and I'd argue they're really good. While they only scored 10 against OKST it was on the road, the first game of the year, and they were playing with a new QB and RB, also the put up 52 against the Hogs this weekend. So I think their game against USC was more of a "perfect storm" than an anomaly. They were fired up and playing to save their season and USC made mistakes, a lot of them (in both the kick coverage and too often going for the big hit instead of simply rapping up). So where does that leave us? USC is a talented (but young) defense this year, and losing guys like Muyderlan, Cook and Brinkley hurt but they have tremendous potential. I think we'll catch glimpses of both the youth and the potential this year. Look for a bit of a drop-off from last year's 13 ranked squad but a unit that will give the offense a chance to win every game and bail them out in a few.

Another think that has impressed me about this team is their youth at all the offensive skill positions. Garcia is a sophomore, the three leading receivers from last week are Gurley (rs F) Barnes (SO) and Jeffery (t F), the two leading rushers from last week, Giles and Miles are both true freshmen. Coupled with rising defensive stars like Gilmore and Taylor, and you're looking a strong nucleus to build around.

Finally to everyone who has called for Spurrier's head (or visor) over the past for seasons should calm down and shut up. They need to take a break from criticizing and look back over USC's history to put their expectations in prospective. How many winning seasons has USC had total? How many under Spurrier? Take a look at our coaches winning percentages and compare them with Spurrier's run here. I think we (myself included) got spoiled by Holtz temporary turnaround, (0-11 to 9-4) the greatest in college football history. It takes time to build something and I think that patience will pay some fat dividends over then next few years. Also in football, as in any sport, you have to ask who better can you get before you move someone. The answer for that question concerning Spurrier is no one (I think the same goes for Jake Delhome). 

So whats next for this team? An upset of the #4 team in the nation on thursday night!

Giles and Miles: Get Used to It

Now I know it was against the FAU Owls and you can't draw many meaningful conclusions from the game, but still, after USC's red-zone troubles (seemingly always being forced to settle for the FG instead of the TD) they scored 5 TDs tonight. Then Stephen Garcia avoided a let down and had another strong performance going 20-27 for 222 yds, no INTsm rushing, and passing for a TD. However one area for concern was USC's offense was it's .333% conversion rate on 3rd downs and .000% on 4th downs. Still, for a team that lead the SEC with 27 int's last year and who scored a mere 7 points against NSCT it's hard to get upset with a second consecutive 30+ point game.

For a USC rushing attack has lacked a real marquee back and has struggled to establish itself in games over the last few years things may/are finally starting look up. The freshman duo of Giles and Miles combined for 169 yards on just 16 carries, that's 10.6 yards per carry, then while Maddox didn't have the yards to keep up with these two he was able to punch the ball into the end-zone three times tonight. In total the Gamecocks rushed for 287 yards, 4 TDs and averaged over 8 yards per carry. 

The defense play well, nothing unforgettable but still an improvement from last weekend. However, Gilmore appears to be settling in well and is showing signs of what may prove to be a very accomplished career at Carolina. Today he had a pick and recovered a fumble to added to his TD saving deflection against NCST. Norwood, of course,  continued his brilliance by forcing another turnover against FAU; however, the largest area for concern may be Carolina's special teams. After allowing 36 yards per return last week they (by default) improved against FAU but still allowed 26 yards per return. This is something that must improve if they want to make any waves in the SEC this year.

Why You Shouldn't Get to Discouraged about Saturday

This post would be a lot easier if Curran hadn't have gotten his hand up and Garcia had thrown for 320 yards instead of 313 but that's not how things turned out. Still there are some reasons to come away from this game optimistic. First, Steven Garcia had a career night with 313 yds, 2 td's (and two more that were called back) against 1 int, and showed poise leading a come back on the road in the SEC against a ranked team. On top of that he was ticked of with himself after the loss, “I can't even talk right now, I'm so (ticked)” and “I don't think I played well enough, it's kind of haunting me right now, the last play”. If were going to break this cycle of mediocrity we need to develop a culture that doesn't accept mediocrity, that plays to win rather than to just put up a good effort. This culture is developing on both sides of the ball. Take Norwood's post game quote, right after the defensive coordinator gave him an out explaining the defense's missed assignments were because Gathers and Peppers were out forcing USC to play a 3 man front, Norwoord said, “We gotta get right, just plan and simple. You can sit here and say it's X's or O's. But we've got to go out and make it happen”.

Still the main reason that USC fans should be optimistic is that we have seen the potential of this team. If we can combine the two efforts (the D against NCST and the O against UGA) we could play with just about any college football team. Combine the young talent, a potential quarterback, and a strong (young) defense with a developing winning mentality and you could make a case that the ole ball coach may finally be turning around this team. Now I don't want to get carried away, if last week a win was a win then this week a loss is still a loss and I don't think this is a 10 win season or anything but 8 games and a bowl win to top it off isn't unrealistic. And hey, at the risk of being “that guy”, why not next year? Lots of young talent, UF will (hopefully) have a drop off, UT is still a few years away, and we have shown are ability to play with UGA over the decade, dare I even say it?

Resilient ACC?

An excerpt What We Learned: Week 2 College Football – ESPN....

"The ACC is resilient. It wasn't always pretty (more like Ugly Betty), but the ACC did what it had to do to bounce back from last week's losses. Wake Forest responded from its loss to Baylor against a tough Stanford team, Duke rebounded from its loss to Richmond on the road against Army, Maryland was able to stave off James Madison after its loss to Cal, and both Virginia Tech and NC State took out their aggression from Week 1 losses to the SEC and beat up on Marshall and Murray State, respectively. Florida State also got a win after losing to Miami".

Wait, come again? They're resilient because they beat Stanford, Army, James Madison, Marshall, Murray St, Kent St, Connecticut and Jacksonville St? To be fair after last week if you go 8-1 it's an improvement regardless of who you play. Then, how many of these games are quality wins, traditionally defined as a win over a bowl team? Maybe one? Also, it's telling how they one these games. FSU edged out Jacksonville St in the final minute while Maryland needed over time to fight off the perennial powerhouse James Madison; then #19 UNC needed a late safety to stave off Connecticut.

Is it any coincidence that the two best wins/games for ACC teams are the two ACC vs. ACC match-ups? 

USC Drops a Heartbreaker in Athens

 South Carolina dominated 1^st down (26 to 16), top (34:21 to 25:39), to's (3-1) and total yds (427 to 308) but they ended up 4 short in the stat that matters most. While there is blame to be passed around (the “d”, an int, stupid penalties) a lot of the blame must fall on the special teams. A blocked extra point that would have allowed USC to kick a field goal instead of forcing the 4^th down conversion and 252 yds of kickoff returns with the corner stone being a Boykin 100 yd TD return coupled with to 48 yd returns. Then there is the defense who looked more interested in making the big hits than in wrapping up and sound form tackling and constantly seemed out of place on the field. Then it's hard to pin much blame an offense that scored 37 points or a quarterback with a 58% completion ratio with 313 yds but still they had trouble in the red-zone. They were forced to settle for field goals 5 times and a turnover on downs and if they had have been able to capitalize on any one of these it could have changed the outcome.

While it doesn't help now the first step in the healing process might be recognizing that dispite these mistakes we were a tipped pass away from coming back from 15 points (after blowing a 10 point lead) on the road against a ranked SEC foe.

Week One Winners

The MWC is making a strong case to be perennially involved in the BCS, and with the way the ACC and Big East are looking, it's hard to say otherwise. As everyone knows BYU knocked off Oklahoma this weekend and they now control their own fate with a schedule (3 OU, 18 FSU, 17 TCU, and 19 Utah) that stacks up well against just about anyones. It was a good weekend for TCU and Utah by default, since it brings credibility their conference and strengthens their schedule strength.

Boise St took down an Oregon on national tv thursday night. Now Boise St lacks the strength of schedule that the MWC teams enjoy so they need Oregon to rebound if they want a chance at the BCS. If Oregon does this and Boise St can run the table (no more ranked teams on their plate), coupled with their recent BCS win, they may just stand a chance to get back.

Alabama vs. VT was the only top 10 match up of the week, and while it wasn't pretty they managed to out last the Hokies. While they showed a lot of room for improvement they also showed a lot of promise. The "D" looked solid and McElroy look good in the 4th quarter, when they needed him most. In fact, the whole team looked good in the 4th quarter, I sign of any championship caliber team.

Finally Oklahoma St and Texas won win Bradford went down. It looks like the Big 12 will send two teams to the BSC and they'll most likely be from these three. So you hate to see an injury, but anytime one loses it's helping the others. To add to this, Oklahoma St added to their weekend by knocking off a good Georgia team and perhaps made a statement there are 3 national contenders in the Big 12 South.

ACC (Athletically Challenged Conference)

I know that it's normally not smart to pass judgement after one week of football, but when a lost to 1-AA Richmond isn't your most embarrassing loss the normal rules go out the window. First off, congratulations Clemson, your win over Middle Tennessee St. was the ONLY ACC win over a 1-A team. That's right, against 1-A schools the ACC went a whopping 1-4. Maryland played, or at least I guess you could call it that, Cal and lost by almost 40 while WF at least kept it close against a mediocre Balyor team that is expected to win 3 Big 12 games this year. Then a NCST offense lead by the returning All-Atlantic first team QB managed to put up 3 points against USC while VT, the class of the ACC, lost by 10 to Alabama in a game that they play much worse in than the score indicates. The highly touted VT defense gave up nearly 500 yards and 5.5 yards per carry and their offense looked stuck in park. Well at least they tried, which is something we can't say about BC, Duke, GT, UNC, or UVA. Now I'm not a fan of playing 1-AA schools but everybody does it so I won't hate on them for that; however, I will hate on them for going 3-2 against them. That's right, the ACC couldn't take care of heavy-weights Richmond or William and Mary! In the spirit of full discloser, BC, GT, and UNC took care of their scrimmage games but so did UK, UT, Miss St, Auburn, Ark, UF, Vandy, LSU, Ole Miss and just about every none ACC school.

So I think it's fair to say that the hype of being on par with the SEC, Big 12 or PAC 10 comes crashing down when your marquee games are a "close" loss and a win of Mid. Tennessee St. But hey, there is good news for the ACC, tonight Miami plays FSU tonight which means you'll get another 1-A win on your record!

South Carolina's Offense Makes Key Plays

USC made two key offensive plays in the opener against NCST; unfortunately they didn't make any other plays. Fortunately, the defense that finished ranked #13 in the nation despite working with an offense that committed 38 turnovers and whose running game finished dead last in the SEC held things down. Here's a breakdown of their season opener.

The Offense:

The offense took advantage of the early fumble when Maddox powered into the end-zone for the go-ahead score (albeit only 5:50 into the game) and then late in the 4th quarter Garcia connected with Moe Brown for a 33 yard completion that allowed USC to run out the clock. Still it's not quite as dismal as the stats may appear (256 total yds, 1 int, 33% on 3rd down and 25% in the red-zone) and I think there is reason to believe that another top 15 defense won't be wasted this year. First, after averaging over 3 turnovers a game in 2008 they only committed one last night. Second, while Garcia still lacks good field vision he seems to be improving and Maddox showed promise (and for those of you who suffered through last years offense, only one false start!). Then, they left points on the board. Most obviously the missed FG, 1-4 and offensive pass interference that brought back a TD. Now there are two ways to look at these and I'm not sure yet if I'm a half empty or half full guy when it comes to this offense. Maybe they can fix these "early season blunders" and we should be encourage because it shows that we have potential; or maybe it's just another year of 33% third down conversions and 25% red zone offense. I'm not sure, but I am sure that if we can run the ball, limit turnovers, and play the field position game then our defense can keep us in every game.

The Defense:

Let's stop for a moment of applause before moving on.... Ok. Even the habitually carping OBC had something nice to say. "I told our defensive coaches that we might have the top team in the nation in total defense the way we played tonight.... We only allowed 133 yards, that's unbelievable...our defense had a super night". Were they really that good? Yes. Last night the secondary held the mobile Russel Wilson, last years first team All-Atlantic Coast Conference QB, to 12/23 passing and a dismal 74 yards. It appears that questions about the you secondary have been answered and they have clearly reloaded after losing Cook and Muderlyn early to the NFL. The front 6 sacked Wilson 6 times and kept him constantly under pressure and limited NCST to 59 rushing yards. Not only did the defense shut down the Pack (133 total yards) they made the big plays throughout the game. Early in the first quarter, on his first collegiate play, Devin Taylor forced a fumble that lead to USC's only score. The redshirt freshman didn't wait long for an encore either, blocking a punt later in the first quarter. He shared some of the spotlight with fellow freshman Stephon Gilmore (#2 CB recruit) who tipped the ball away from Jarvis Williams in the end-zone late in the 4th quarter to prevent a potential game losing TD. It wasn't just the new comers though, Eric Norwood showed why he is an All SEC player by recording two sacks, pushing his career total to 24. They were also stingy when it matters most, holding the Pack to 5-14 on 3rd downs, 0-1 on fourth downs and keeping them out of the end-zone for the second straight year. Finally, if the impressive stat line wasn't enough, they didn't even have starting DL Geathers or Ajiboye, both who will be returning later in the season to add even more depth and talent.

Final Thoughts:

 It wasn't pretty, but winning as the underdog on the road is satisfying no matter how it happens. Now let's stay grounded and view the game for what it was. I don't think anyone has any false expectations about challenging UF for the SEC East or  a 10 win season, but still there is reason to believe that an 8 win is reasonable. If the "D" repeats this performance next week against UGA and the offense cleans up its game then an upset isn't too preposterous, of course, neither is a beat down.

SEC West Preview

Projected Outcome:

Alabama (11-1, 7-1)

Ole Miss (10-2, 6-2)

LSU (9-3, 5-3)

Arkansas (7-5, 3-5)

Auburn (6-6, 2-6)

Miss St. (4-8, 1-7)

Alabama's 3 ranked scoring defense shows no signs of letting up this year, if anything, look for them to get stronger lead by All-Americans McClain and Arenas. The offense won't be as strong as the defense and will be lead by QB McElroy. The loss of Smith and two other starting o-linemen coupled with Coffee's departure to the NFL will undoubtedly hurt the tide. Still, with Saban's two unbelievable recruiting classes, look for young talent to help lead this offense along with Julio Jones' playmaking ability. Like Florida they should be the favorite in every game they play during the regular season.

Ole Miss is an interesting case. Lead by Snead (2,763 yds and 26 td last year), McCluster, Hodge and their 4 top RBs, look for this offense that averaged 32 points a game in the SEC to repeat it's performance. Their major concern coming into 2009 is a poor secondary (221 yds per game) and little depth on either line of scrimmage. They play LSC and Bama at home, and with their big game potential (beating UF and Texas Tech last year) look for them to make the race for the west an interesting one this year.

LSU is coming of a disappointing 2008 season that included a some embarrassing losses but was capped by a rout of GT in their bowl game. They continually show the incredible depth and talent that comes out of the state of Louisiana by constantly reloading and again have a dazzling display of talent on the offensive side of the field. If they want to improve from last year they must shore up their SEC's 11th ranked passing defense and Jefferson must continue the success he had against GT. If the defense strengthens look for them to challenge Bama for the SEC West crown.

Arkansas's defense is returning all 11 starters but when your defense was ranked last in the SEC the year before that's not always a good thing. They've made strides, and with several JUCO transfers look for the secondary to be improved from last year (31 points per game). However, on the other side of the ball they are loaded, with depth at running back that could be mentioned in the same breath as souther cal, and D. J. Williams at receiver, they could surprise a few people in Petrino's second year.

Auburn's 2009 team provides only a few opportunities for hope. The ground game leaded Tate and Fannin is one. However, with a QB battle between Burns (.2876 td to int ratio) and the unknown Neil Caudle, don't expect the tigers to go to far. The defense will be ok, but like the offense lacks any real depth. Expect Chizik to be unable to return Auburn to the glory days (otherwise known as the years Bama was on probation) this year.

Mississippi St's first year coach Dan Mullen will take over after winning two national championships as Florida's offensive coordinator. Unlike the job he left, the O line here is in shambles, the receiving core is unproven, there is no pass rush, and a young secondary. As you may have guessed, this adds up to a rough year for the Bulldogs. Also at the quarterback position, look for Mississippi's Mr. football Tyler Russell to challenge Lee for the starting job for a team that is going through "growing pains".

SEC East Preview

Projected Outcome:

Florida (11-1, 7-1)

UGA ( 8-4, 5-3)

USC (8-4, 4-4)

UK (7-5, 3-5)

Vandy (6-6, 3-5)

Tenn. (6-6, 2-6)

Team By Team:

How can Florida not repeat? They are returning all 11 starters from the national championship game AND all 11 back-ups from defense that held the Big 12's high octane Oklahoma to 14 points. Their quarterback may be the greatest college football player. If this wasn't enough, they have, by SEC standards, a schedule set up for them to win. FSU is the only non-conference game that their third string couldn't win handily, also they miss Bama and Ole Miss. Look for number 3 in 4 years.

Georgia doesn't come with the same preseason hype that had last year but they are still Georgia. With 8 returning starters, their O line should be vastly improved and should no longer be their Achilles' heel. The linebacker core should be the strength of the defense and A.J. Green will be the start of the offense. Still the question of how King and Cox will do in replacing Stafford and Moreno at RB and QB looms large.

South Carolina has plenty of talent as well as plenty of question. One thing that won't be a question is their defensive front 7. Lead by Norwood, expect their 4-2-5 defense to stingily give up rushing yards. The secondary will undoubtedly be hurt by Munnerlyn and Cooks early exit to the NFL but expect the young talented core to develop as the season progresses. The past few years the offense has been the bane of ever USC fan, expect this year to be little different. Still there is reason for hope, Garcia is showing promise, and look for players like Byrnes and Brown to step up on the receiving end. If the O line can give Garcia time and open up the running game, look for the defense to help carry the offense to a 8 win season.

Look for Kentucky's offense to feature Randall under center occasionally as they run a wildcat offense, which, coupled with Senior A. Smith (4.3 for a 40 time) a tailback to breath life into their animate rushing game. A major concerns are the defense who (due to Jarmon testing positive for banned substances) are only returning 4 starters. Also we will have to see if QB Hartline can overcome his inconsistency and lead this team to an unimaginable 4th start bowl game.

Vanderbilt's lines should be the strength of their club since they aren't losing a single starter from either side of scrimmage. They return 9 starters from a solid group that allowed less than 20 points a game last year. The easiest way they could not return to a bowl this year will be inconsistent quarterback play and lack of playmakers on offense. Much like the USC if they can jump start their offense look for a successful season.

Tennessee had a great recruiting class that has only added to the hype Layne Kiffin has generated around the program, unfortunately they are still a year or two away. They have a strong defense lead by Eric Berry, perhaps the best player in college football,  that should keep them in games in spite of a lack of depth and experience at linebacker. Still, like so many other SEC teams this year quarterback play will determine the outcome of the season and with Crompton and Stephens it doesn't look promising. Look for a promising season that, coupled with a few solid recruiting classes, could have Tennessee back on it's way to national relevance.

BCS Bowls

Rose Bowl

Penn St. vs. Southern Cal

(Southern Cal by 7)

Orange Bowl

VT vs. West Virgina

(VT by 3)

Sugar Bowl

Alabama vs. Boise St.

(Alabama by 14)

Fiesta Bowl

Oklahoma vs Ohio St.

(Oklahoma by 7)

BCS National Championship Game

Florida vs.Texas

(Florida by 10)

Florida will beat Texas in the National 

2009 ACC Predictions

2009 ACC Predictions:

Coastal Division: Atlantic Division

VT 9-3, 6-2 FSU 7-5, 5-3

GT 9-3, 6-2 CU 8-4, 5-3

UNC 9-3, 5-3 WF 8-4, 4-4

Miami 7-5, 3-5 BC 7-5, 4-4

UVA 4-8, 2-6 NCST 7-5, 4-4

Duke 3-9, 1-7 Maryland 6-6, 4-4

The 2008 ACC season was an extraordinary display of parity, or an ordinary display of mediocrity; there was  only one game separating the top and the bottom of the Atlantic division and every team had at least 3 conference losses. While they sent a record 10 teams bowling, they had a disappointing sub .500% record. One bright spot in the 2009 bowl season was VT ending the 1-9 BCS drought with a win over Cincinnati. Still it seems that in recent years the ACC has been blinded by the national spot light with (VT vs. LSU 2007; Bama vs. Clemson 2008; 2-9 BCS era) and has not had a legitimate national championship contender since FSU in 2000.

Could Virginia Tech be that contender this year? Ranked number 7th national in both preseason polls it's hard to say otherwise and they have a schedule thats lined up for them. While they play 4 top 25 teams (5 Alabama, 24 Nebraska, 15 Georgia Tech, and 21 North Carolina) all but the GT game is in Blacksburg. Also, they are in September or October so the have November and a ACC title game to climb back up the polls if they drop one these early games. There rushing game should be solid with Evans returning from his 1265 yds. 11 td freshman campaign and the "Vickish" Taylor behind center.

Verdict:

VT is the class of the ACC (winning in 2004, 2007, 2008 and 2nd in 2005) I expect them to be there again this year. In the national picture they are the only ACC team that can lose and still be considered for the BCS national championship. End the end their schedule is too much and they are still a bit too young, they'll play for the ACC championship again but with at least 2 losses the ACC will have to wait another year. (9-3, 6-2)

Georgia Tech is returning Dwyer (1397 yds, 7 per carry, 12 tds) and a high powered running game. The offense should resemble 2008 but their defense will have a few holes and a some youth and could prove to be their Achilles' heal. They lost 5 starters, 3 from the DL, and will have a hard time rebuilding, which will be a true test of Paul Johnson.

Verdict:

Thankfully, play 21 UNC, 7 VT, and 13 UGA all at home but they still have to go to Tallahassee for 18 FSU and to Nashville to play a solid Vanderbilt team. They will finish 2nd behind VT in the costal because of a head to head loss and match last years record. (9-3, 6-2)

North Carolina is a team clearly moving in the right direction, still, I can't quite buy into all the hype just yet. However, their non-confrence schedule is a joke and besides having to play divisional foes VT and GT on the road the conference schedule isn't too bad either.

Verdict:

Look for UNC to up last years (8-4, 4-4) numbers with a (9-3, 5-3) season. They will drop the GT and VT games and then slip up somewhere else in the ACC (FSU or at BC?).

Miami has fallen so far since the early 2000's, in fact, the last time they did something meaningful was when the beat FSU in the 2004 Orange Bowl (their last game before joining the ACC). I doubt this year signal a return to glory. They start with a schedule that should make Hurricane fans cry (at 18 FSU, 15 GT, at 7 VT, 3 OU).

Verdict:

Miami may be 0-4 on October 4th, actually they will be. This will be to much for them to overcome and they'll finish 4th in the costal at (7-5, 3-5).

Virginia does show many reasons for hope this year. In 2008 when the league was ruled by mediocrity they finished 3-5, and while VT, GT, and UNC have been making strides to improve UVA seems stuck in neutral. Expect the only real highlight to be the secondary play but this to be offset by a lack of ability to stop the run.

Verdict:

UVA will again miss the bowl season, kudos for scheduling 17 TCU but I'm afraid it'll just be another notch in the loss column. Still thanks to Duke even with a record of (4-8, 2-6) they won't be at the bottom.

If a conference is going to have national contenders, and not beat itself up, it's gonna have to have Duke, cough, I mean a team at the bottom. Hmmm, it's gonna be hard to be positive here. Last year their best football player was on the basketball court instead of the field and wasn't even starting the second half of his senior year.

Verdict:

Look for them to start strong against the Richmond Spiders (no they're not a high school, I checked) and maybe even keep rolling against Army. Then probably finish 1-9 for a (3-9, 0-8) record.

Atlantic Division:

FSU looks like the favorite for this division as Bowden seems to have them moving in the right direction. With FSU speed on both sides of the ball, and if Ponder continues to develop they should have a decent season. There non conference games are tough, with 20 BYU and the perennial game with UF (ranked number 1 in case you have been in a coma for the last year or so) keeping them from an 8 or 9 win season.

Verdict:

They should finish first among the bottle neck around the top of the division. Look for a (7-5, 5-3) year that doesn't live up to expectations.

The division gets tough here, I don't really see any stand outs or push overs. I doubt any of these teams finish below 4-4 in conference or that any will finish about 5-3.

Clemson's ACC championship window may be closing. In a weak ACC the tigers have continually shown their inability to get over the hump, to even play for a championship. Always at the door but never able to walk through (ei. Kelly's drop, Ryan's pass). With the league strengthening, have they lost their chance? Still there are reasons for hope, Dabo has playmakers such as Ford and Spiller who have incredible big play potential. Also, Korn and Parker have potential to make plays at quarterback, something the tigers haven't really had since Woody. Still there is reason for doubt, Korn and Parker are untested, how will the tigers work without Harper and Davis, how will Dabo do in his first full year?

Verdict:

Clemson's ACC schedule is set for them to succeed, they miss UNC and VT, and get to play FSU at home. Their schedule isn't a breeze though, inviting TCU to Death Valley and going on the road for GT and USC. Look for another "almost" season for the tigers, finishing with 7 or 8 wins and a 5-3 conference record.

Wake Forest isn't a perennial power, but they do have Skinner and perhaps the easiest schedule in the ACC. They aren't really challenging themselves outside of the conference with Baylor, Stanford, Elon, and Navy, and like Clemson they miss VT and UNC.

Verdict:

Look for the Deacons to start strong, they could easily roll into Atlanta on November 11th with only 1 or 2 losses for a highly ranked show down. Of course, they could also be below 500% in the ACC by then, mediocr... I mean, parody. If they come into Atlanta highly ranked I'm afraid the bubble will burst there and they won't live up to their ranking. (8-4, 4-4)

Boston College has been solid in the ACC since joining, certainly a lot of the credit goes to Matt Ryan and sound quarterback play. This year after Shinskies broken rib, they find themselves lacking in this department.

Verdict:

BC should do ok this year in a close division, probably finishing around (7-5, 4-4) maybe with an upset win over Notre Dame.

It's hard to know what to do with Maryland. They'll start off with a loss to 12 Cal and then their schedule settles down until mid November. How they play in this stretch will determine their season, I don't expect great things but with James Madison, Middle Tennessee St, Virginia, Duke, and NCST they don't really need great things.

Verdict:

The Turtles will do ok, win a couple of the Clemson, Wake, FSU, and BC games, and if they take care of the games they should win, we'll probably see them bowling again. (7-5, 4-4)

North Carolina State, like Maryland, I'm not that sure about these guys. After their Thursday night showdown with USC the picture may get clearer. Unlike the other Atlantic teams they play both VT and UNC, and the non conference schedule isn't a breeze either with Pitt and USC.

Verdict:

The schedule is to much for them, they win the easy ones but come up one or two plays too short too many times to make any real waves. (6-6, 4-4)

South Carolina Football Predictions 2009

Overall Projected Record: 7.5 - 4.5

I've tried to be as unbiased as I can be and accurately predict the outcome of the season. I've accounted for where the games are played, who each team is coming off of playing and who they have next, and by drawing off 15 years SEC football fan experience. Based on my percentages and my equation the gamecocks will have around 7 (6.6) wins going into the Clemson game which, from here, looks like a toss-up. Both teams littered with question marks as well as talent, since the game is at home and I'm biased, I'm giving the Gamecocks the nod and expect them to finish the year 8-4 (7.6 wins and 4.4 loses) and 4-4 in the SEC. (3.98 SEC wins and 4.02 losses)

Best Case:

USC starts off strong with wins over NC State and Georgia. Garcia steps up, the offense gels, a running game develops and the defense takes care of business. USC goes on and handles UFA and SCST, wins all but one of Kentucky, Vandy, Tennessee, Arkansas, and Clemson and then steals one of the "top ten" games: Mississippi, Alabama and Florida. This leaves them 9-3 with a 2-2 record over top 15 teams. At 6-2 in the SEC they finish second in the East and fourth overall in the SEC.

Worst Case:

USC falters against NC State and doesn't right the ship by the next week against Georgia. Riddled with controversy over the ole ball coach, the quarterback situation, the running game, and a lack of depth in the secondary which handicaps an exhausted defense. USC wins the easy ones UFA and SCST but stumbles through the mid-level games Kentucky Vandy, Tennessee, Arkansas, and Clemson winning only 3, then loses all three of the top levels games: Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida. This leaves them 5-7 (2-6) watching the bowl games on TV and depending on tie-breakers around 5th in the East and 10th overall in the SEC. 

Game by Game Run Down:

South Carolina at NC State

W (75%) L (25%)

Beginning the season with a gigantic "?" at quarterback position and no established running back, one of the toughest schedules in the nation (ranked number 3 by CFP), on top of playing in the perennially loaded SEC east leaves little room for error. The first chance for error comes on the road Sept. 3 against NC State. While I've never thought that the first game of the year is a "must win game" this one comes about as close as you can get. At the very least, coupled with the following battle with Georgia, will give a strong indicator of how the rest of the season may look. NC State is projected to land somewhere in the middle to bottom half of the ACC Atlantic Division, however, if Russell Wilson can continue to progress, they may mange to finish near the top of their division and winning this game would be a strong start for that campaign. Of course, lingering thoughts of last years 34-0 shellacking may be the demons they can't overcome.

Prediction:

South Carolina pulls out this one on the road in a closer fashion than a year's matchup, winning 24-17.

South Carolina at 13 Georgia

W (30%) L(70%)

The 2009 Georgia squad isn't quite the 2008 crowd (ranked #2 at the time) lead by Stafford and Moreno who both made early departures to the NFL. Recently, the Gamecocks have played well against Georgia and this may be a year that it's better to play Georgia earlier than later.

Prediction:

In the same vein as last years 14-7 battle Georgia pulls out a close game characterized by defenses that are far ahead of offenses. Interceptions may be more common than completions and touchdowns will be at a premium but I wouldn't be surprised if the Gamecocks pull off an upset here. In the end Georgia inches out Carolina 13-9.

South Carolina vs. Florida Atlantic

W (100%) L (0%)

There is no "sure win" in college football (unless we're talking about the Gators) but this is about as close as the Gamecocks will have to a lock.

Prediction:

The Gamecocks will win, but by how much? This is a tough question to answer as we could see a 2-0 team oozing with confidence or a 0-2 team coming of a tough two game road stretch without a quarterback. Since I'm forecasting a 1-1 team I'll split the difference with the Gamecocks winning 34-17 in a game that is never really in doubt.

South Carolina vs. 8 Mississippi

W(33%) L(67%)

It's beginning to become clear why our schedule is ranked #3 in the nation. Why can't we ever play Auburn on years like this? Mississippi is up this year and many people have them as the dark horse to when the West and to at least challenge the Gators for the overall title. Behind Sneed, they pose quite a challenge and make this game a tough one for the gamecocks to steal.

Prediction:

The gamecocks won in Oxford last year and both teams look fairly similar to those squads so I wouldn't be surprised to see an upset here and this could very easily be a slip up game for the Rebels. I think that the Rebels offense vs the Gamecocks defense will be a matchup that makes this game well worth watching, unfortunately I don't think the defense won't get the help it needs for the offense and will be worn down by the 4th quarter. Ole Miss 27-14 in a game that is closer than the score indicates.

South Carolina vs. SC State

W(100%) L(0%)

I like this game. Not only because of the breather it provides, rather because if you going to play games like this (which in the SEC you need) it's nice to keep them in-state. Many of these guys played high-school ball together, it lends itself to good story line, and it is good for the smaller state schools.

Prediction:

It's never really close again after the kickoff and the win this won running away 38-13. The gamecocks defense proves too fast and deep for SC State and the offense finally looks like it knows what it's doing.

South Carolina vs Kentucky

W(80%) L(20%)

Staying at home, the Gamecocks take on the Wildcats who have been making great strides recently and have become a challenge. This game will be tough and may resemble last years 24-17 gamecock win.

Prediction:

The Gamecocks defense is too much for the Cats and they pull out this win in ugly fashion 23-17.

South Carolina at 5 Alabama

W(20%) L(80%)

Back on the road, the Gamecocks roll in for what looks to be another tough match up. Seriously, why don't we get Auburn or Miss St. this year? Alabama didn't lose much from last year, but they did lose a quarterback who had started there since the mid-ninty's. Still expect Sabon to have this team under control even in the absence of JP Wilson's leadership.

Prediction:

You never get excited when you see a game at Tuscaloosa on your schedule, even less so when you see the ranking that the Tide has. Still, I won't write this game off yet (though my 20% may look silly by game time) but it doesn't look like a win for Carolina. Both defenses will look like top 15 defense but the same won't be said for the offenses. Alabama's will look like it but the Gamecocks offense will again leave something to be desired. This will be the deference in the game and the cause of a 27-13 Tide win.

South Carolina vs Vanderbilt

W(80%) L(20%)

Vanderbilt was the cause of the Gamecocks demise two years ago (or perhaps the Wofford win) and they beat USC again last year. Vanderbilt, like Kentucky, has climbed from the basement of and is no longer the East's running joke. This game is in Nashville and you never know what state the Gamecocks will be in after Bama.

Prediction:

History won't repeat itself here, with the Gamecocks taking this game. It will be hard fought but Carolina will come out on top 24-17 in another close match.

South Carolina at Tennessee

W(75%) L(25%)

Will Layne Kiffin turn the Vols around, maybe, will he do it this year, doubtful. The Vols carry the same bark but not the same bite they used too.

Prediction:

Vols will most likely be desperate for a win here but most likely not in the shape to pull it off. The Gamecocks take this one 20-17 in a nail-biter.

South Carolina at Arkansas

W(75%) L(24%)

These games get harder and harder to pick as you get deeper into the SEC season. Arkansas and the Gamecocks are both expected to finish in the middle of their respective divisions. There is little room for a push to the top of either division for these teams but a 2nd or 3rd place finish is possible with a few key wins, but so is a 5th or 6th place finish with a few bad loses.

Prediction:

It's hard to know what these teams will look like by week 9 of the season and playing on the road is never easy. Still I like the Gamecocks here to win 28-24 in a game where the offense looks good late and bails out the defense for once.

South Carolina vs 1 Florida

W(5%) L(95%)

So, not every pick gets harder. It seems to not really matter when or where this game is played. It's in Columbia, which normally helps but I don't really think the ZIP code the game is played in will really give one team the edge they need.

Prediction:

As a fan it kills me to write this but it's not going to be close, or pretty. Still (the eternal optimist in me) it's college football and it's hard to navigate the SEC season undefeated, could the Gamecocks be the slip-up that Florida always seems to make. Why not, besides of course, our quarterbacks vs. their quarterbacks or maybe our running game? Still anything can happen. Mostly like though, a 38-21 loss.

South Carolina vs. Clemson

W(50%) L(50%)

This game feels like a toss up to me, both teams have some promise and some question marks. Much like the Gamecocks uncertainty behind the center, Clemson's Parker has been named Harpers replacement but Korn could always make a push. It's hard to pick a favorite in a game between two team with this many questions this far in advance, perhaps the picture will defog as the season progresses. This game will also have large bowl implications for the two teams. Either getting them bowl eligible or adding an important non-conference win to there bowl resume. 

Prediction:

This feels like anybody's game for now, but because of the fan in me and since the game is in Columbia, USC wins by a fieldgoal 27-24.

Odds to Play for the 2009-2010 National Championship

The Short List: (127%; 7.85/10) 

Florida 8/5

Texas 4/1

Oklahoma 5/1

Penn St. 5/1

Reasonable Shot: (55%; 9/5)

Southern Cal 8/1

Alabama 8/1

Ohio St. 12/1

Mississippi 18/1

Virginia Tech 18/1

LSU 18/1

Oklahoma St 20/1

Long Shot: (16.7%; 6/1)

California 35/1

Georgia 35/1

Georgia Tech 40/1

BYU 40/1

TCU 50/1

Boise St. 50/1

Notre Dame 50/1

Rest of the Field: (1.3%; 75/1)

Florida: 

They're just about everybody's pick (58 out 60)first place votes in the AP. The reasons they should play for the Championship are almost as long as the odds that Notre Dame will it. With Tebow and pretty much the same team as last year, a favorable SEC schedule, look for the Gators in January. Is the hype too much and will they resemble ESPN's "Greatest College Team Ever" 2004 Southern California who lost to Vince Young?

Texas:

With Colt returning for his senior season, and most of his offensive weapons sticking around, the Longhorns look like a favorite. Will they end up on the wrong side of a 3 way tie again?

Oklahoma:

Along with Texas they look like the class of the Big 12, but with a tough schedule and Bradford losing some offensive weapons, can they get back to the title game?

Penn State:

I don't think they're near Southern Cal, the top of SEC or the top of the Big 12 but with only 2 games against ranked teams (22 Iowa and 6 Ohio St) both of which are at home, an undefeated season isn't out of the question. They have no room for error, so can they run the table?

Southern California:

They play a tough schedule, (6 Ohio St, 12 Cal, 23 Notre Dame, 16 Oregon) all on the road. With another QB moving on to the NFL they have chosen to start true freshman Matt Barkley. With this many tough road games and a true freshman QB, can they run the table and if they drop one will they make it over a 1 loss Big 12 or SEC school?

Alabama:

Look for Sabon to have Bama fired up after a disappointing finish to last seasons reemergence to the national scene. Ranked 5th nationally they start off the season with a showdown with 7th ranked VT. How will they do without Wilson?

Ohio St:

They play Southern Cal early in a must win game. After some disappointing BCS performances they need to win some big non conference games to win some credibility back for the Big 10. With to late top 25 games (Penn St. and Iowa) and no conference championship game, they can't afford to drop one. Can they bring respect back to the Big 10 this year?

Mississippi:

With Snead and a favorable SEC schedule, the Rebels are a dark horse to win the SEC this year. Actually they are everyones dark horse to win an ranked 8, so are they really still a dark horse?

LSU:

They may start Jefferson, who would be the youngest starting QB in the SEC and while they have the talent, they may not have quite the experience to win the SEC. Can they overcome their youth and contend for the SEC and then national title?

Virginia Tech:

The Hokies are a solid team and along with GT look to be the class of the ACC, unfortunately that doesn't carry the same clout as being the class of the Big 12 or SEC. I expect youth and tough start to prove to much for them as they drop at least 2 games. Is the ACC able to send a legitimate contender this year?

Oklahoma St:

Surprisingly easy schedule considering where they play, Georgia and Texas at home, and then the season finale against Oklahoma. They may steal one of the games against OU and UT but not both. Could they play a roll in the championship picture by creating an awkward 3-tie in the Big 12 South?

Georgia:

Not quite as long of a shot as you may think, the major road block is that they have to go through UF. If they win that game, they can afford to drop one of the Ok. St, LSU, and GT games, and then beat the SEC West Champion. Can they get through UF?

California:

They get Southern Cal at home and if they win that game anything is possible. Do they have the depth or consistency to run the table?

Georgia Tech:

Like VT, they would pretty much have to go undefeated to get the nod. However, if they lose early, win key conference games, and if Georgia stays highly ranked until the Yellow Jackets come to Athens, it possible. Will their defense be able to fill the holes on the DL?

BYU:

They play a tough schedule (3 OU, 18 FSU, 17, TCU, and 19 Utah). Look for them to drop at least one of those games. If they win out do you have to take them over a 1 loss UF or UT?

TCU:

With their only ranked opponents being 20 BYU and 19 Utah, it looks like their strength of schedule isn't enough to get them in. If UVA or Clemson managed to make a run at the ACC title could it be enough to them?

Boise St:

In the same situation as TCU and BYU, they need to finish 12-0 to have a shot, and that is really just a shot at a BCS game. Does anyone think that last years Utah was really better than UF, do these non BCS school have a case?

Notre Dame:

Thanks to Beano Cook and Lou Holtz the Irish have been thrown into national championship talk. They play maybe the easiest schedule they have ever played with Southern Cal being the only ranked team. I expect them to lose 3 but how would the voters react to a 1 loss Irish team?